The market has been relatively quiet since our last update. But so too have international finance markets, as they have slowly but surely recovered since the “liberation day” news cycle. Coffee has crept up as well, and at one point even reached well above the $4 mark ($4.15 on April 29th) for a moment but now has seemingly settled in its new $3.80 to $3.90 range. Only time will tell how long this lasts, but while it does, it will be prudent for us to take advantage of the ongoing large spreads between periods to buy further out, particularly on any days in the red where the market is down 5 or more cents.
There was a very positive Brazil crop estimate from CONAB on Tuesday that showed a higher than expected harvest for 2025, by almost 7.5%, which in previous years should have shook the market loose and created some nice, downward pressure. But instead, we got a moderately down day, followed by a few middling sessions and ended up a few cents higher than we were when the week started. It looks as though commodity markets, along with the broader, financial markets, are all just waiting for news, particularly related to tariffs, and we aren't seeing the same wild swings as we were just a few weeks back. Some commodities, like oil, are being impacted more than others by the current macro-economic state of things, but at this time of year, when there is not much fundamental news to move it around, coffee is fairly static.
So, to answer the question I’m being asked a lot (‘when is the real relief going to come?’): we really shouldn’t expect to see much movement in the coming months, and where we are today might just be the new normal for a while longer. If anything, we will see some more movement in the fall, but as we approach frost season in Brazil, we do look to be range bound at the high $3 level and it will be next year’s harvest (Fall 2026) that could finally give us substantial relief if it hits the record levels that are currently expected.
Coffee remains in the news, due to both the commodity cost and tariff-related impacts that will ultimately result in higher prices for consumers.
INC - Rising Coffee Prices Fueled by Climate Change and Tariffs
BNN - Coming to a store near you: double-digit coffee price hikes
BBC - US coffee shops worried about bitter price hike after tariffs
Montreal Gazette - Coffee lovers flock to Montreal festival — but will rising java prices sour the buzz?
CBC - Your morning cup of coffee is about to cost even more — thanks to U.S. tariffs